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證券簡稱:蒙泰高新
證券代碼:300876
[Outlook for the textile industry in 2019: scale growth slows, demand keeps growing at a low rate]
Release date:[2019/6/24] Is reading[860]次

The growth rate of the textile industry continues to decline, and industry investment is more rational. At present, the industry has sufficient capacity and the utilization rate continues to rise.


In recent years, the scale of the textile industry has continued to expand, but the growth rate has slowed down markedly, and industry investment has become more rational. In 2017, the fixed assets investment in the textile industry reached 693.614 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The growth rate was 4.8 percentage points lower than that in 2016. The completion of fixed assets investment in the first half of 2018 increased by 0.8% year-on-year. The growth rate slowed down compared with the same period of last year. 6.3 percentage points. At present, the textile industry's production organization form, factor comparative advantage, market competition pattern and resource and environmental constraints have seen new phase changes. Due to industrial restructuring, blind expansion has been curbed. It is expected that the overall investment of the industry is expected to be more rational in 2019. The growth rate of the industry has remained at a low level.


In recent years, the growth rate of the value added of the textile industry has accelerated. In 2017, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 1.5 percentage points. In the first half of 2018, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 3.4 percentage points. In terms of the output of cloth and yarn, the output of cloth and yarn in 2017 was 69.56 billion meters and 40.5 million tons respectively, both of which increased; the output of cloth and yarn in the first half of 2018 was 26.720 billion meters and 16.73 million tons, respectively. However, the growth rate has declined compared with the same period in 2017. At the end of June 2018, the end-of-year value of finished goods in the textile industry (above the main business income of more than 20 million) was 138.45 billion yuan, still at a relatively high level. In 2017, the capacity utilization rate of the textile industry was 80.2%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year. In the first half of 2018, the industry capacity utilization rate further increased to 81.1%. It is expected that the growth rate of the industrial value-added of the textile industry will further shrink in 2019, but the production capacity is still sufficient, and with the upgrading of technology and equipment, the capacity utilization rate is expected to further increase.


The growth rate of domestic textile and apparel demand rebounded weakly, but the adverse impact of the economic growth rate on the demand of textile industry terminals will continue. It is expected that the industry demand will maintain a low growth rate in 2019.


In recent years, the domestic textile and apparel industry's demand growth rate has rebounded weakly, and the retail situation has been steadily improving. It is expected that the industry demand will maintain a low growth rate in 2019. With the development of urbanization and the increase in per capita disposable income, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China has continued to grow. In 2017, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.62 trillion yuan, a cumulative increase of 10.2%. Since 2011, the demand growth rate of textiles and garments (including shoes, hats, needles and textiles) has been declining for six consecutive years, and the growth rate is slowing down. However, the demand growth rate has stabilized in 2017. The retail sales of needles and textiles was 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. The growth rate increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, but it was still lower than the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods by 2.4 percentage points during the same period. From January to June 2018, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles of enterprises above designated size in China was 665.090 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 9.2%, a significant increase from the same period in 2017, while the total retail sales of goods above designated size increased by 7.2%. %, compared with other consumer goods, the performance of textile and apparel consumer goods has been rising steadily this year. In view of the current downward pressure on China's economic growth, it is expected that industry demand will maintain a low growth rate in 2019.


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